80% to 95% chance coronavirus originated in Chinese lab

While Renata Saldanha, the Ceará-born dancer from BBB 25, captures Brazil’s attention with her stint in the Vitrine do Seu Fifi dynamic—securing 27.28% of the public vote in an online poll—a seismic global story unfolds. On March 12, 2025, German media revealed that the Federal Intelligence Service of Germany (BND) estimates an 80% to 95% likelihood that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which triggered the Covid-19 pandemic, originated in a Chinese laboratory, specifically the Wuhan Institute of Virology. This revelation stems from a 2020 report, kept secret by two German administrations, reigniting debates over the virus’s roots. Codenamed “Project Saaremaa,” the investigation highlights risky experiments with animal viruses and biosafety lapses at one of China’s premier research facilities, suggesting the pandemic may have begun with a lab leak—a theory once dismissed as conspiratorial by many.

Commissioned during Angela Merkel’s tenure, the BND’s probe analyzed scientific data from the Wuhan Institute and evidence of “gain-of-function” experiments—techniques that enhance a virus’s transmissibility or lethality for research purposes. The report flags multiple safety protocol breaches at the lab, potentially allowing the virus to escape and spread from Wuhan in late 2019. Despite its explosive findings, the document remained classified, withheld from Germany’s Parliamentary Control Committee and the World Health Organization (WHO), raising questions about governmental transparency under Merkel and her successor, Olaf Scholz. The leak, reported by outlets like Süddeutsche Zeitung and Die Zeit, comes as the world still seeks definitive answers about a pandemic that claimed millions of lives and reshaped economies and societies.

As Renata enjoys her temporary stay in the BBB 25 Glass House, interacting with fans at Rio’s Via Parque Shopping, global focus shifts to this bombshell. The German disclosure arrives at a time when international calls for clarity on Covid-19’s origins persist, met with China’s steadfast refusal to address the allegations. With the BND’s high-probability estimate now public, the narrative of a natural zoonotic spillover competes with mounting evidence of a preventable accident, pushing the scientific and diplomatic communities into uncharted territory.

Hidden for years: why the report stayed under wraps

The BND’s report on the coronavirus’s origins remained confidential for over four years, spanning the Merkel and Scholz administrations. Bruno Kahl, the agency’s president, personally briefed top officials in 2020, at the pandemic’s peak, yet the findings never reached the public or the Bundestag’s oversight committee. The decision to suppress the document originated in the Federal Chancellery, though the exact rationale remains unclear.

It wasn’t until the fall of 2024 that the report was shared with the CIA, signaling limited cooperation with trusted allies. Theories for the secrecy range from diplomatic considerations—avoiding a clash with China, a key economic partner—to a strategic choice to prevent global panic during an already chaotic health crisis.

Project Saaremaa: inside the German investigation

Dubbed “Project Saaremaa,” the BND’s operation began in 2020 to trace the SARS-CoV-2’s source. Agents scrutinized open-source data and classified intelligence, including Chinese scientific papers and details of experiments at the Wuhan Institute, concluding that a lab accident was highly probable. The investigation pointed to inadequate safety measures as a critical factor in the virus’s potential release.

Risky research: what happened at the Wuhan lab

The Wuhan Institute of Virology, situated in the city where Covid-19 first emerged, is one of the world’s few Biosafety Level 4 facilities, designed to handle the most dangerous pathogens. Established in 1956 under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, it specializes in emerging infectious diseases, with a focus on coronaviruses. Since the pandemic’s onset, the lab has faced scrutiny, but the BND’s findings offer concrete insights into its operations.

Evidence suggests the institute conducted gain-of-function experiments, altering viruses to assess their potential to infect humans—a practice aimed at preempting future outbreaks but fraught with hazards. The BND identified repeated breaches in safety protocols, such as mishandling of samples and insufficient protective gear, which could have facilitated an accidental leak. The lab’s proximity to the Huanan Seafood Market, initially blamed for the outbreak, bolstered suspicions, though the absence of a confirmed animal intermediary weakens the zoonotic theory.

Further compounding the case, the BND’s analysis aligns with reports that three Wuhan Institute researchers fell ill with Covid-like symptoms in November 2019, months before the virus was officially recognized. This timeline suggests the pathogen may have escaped earlier than previously thought, challenging the narrative of a late-2019 market origin.

Global response: Germany’s silence, China’s denial

The March 12, 2025, leak caught German officials off guard. Neither the BND nor Chancellor Olaf Scholz, nearing the end of his term, offered comments during a press conference that day, maintaining a wall of silence despite the report’s implications. This reticence stands in stark contrast to the findings’ potential to demand a unified international response.

China, meanwhile, doubled down on its rejection. The Foreign Ministry insisted the Wuhan Institute never conducted gain-of-function research on coronaviruses and dismissed any leak evidence as baseless. Beijing accused foreign inquiries of politicizing the issue, referencing the WHO’s 2021 investigation, which labeled the lab-leak theory “extremely unlikely”—a conclusion widely criticized for its limited access to Chinese data.

Pandemic timeline: key events from Wuhan to the world

The SARS-CoV-2’s journey began in late 2019, with its first documented cases in Wuhan. Here’s a chronology of pivotal moments linking the outbreak to ongoing investigations:

• November 2019: Three Wuhan Institute researchers reportedly fall ill with Covid-like symptoms.
• December 2019: Chinese authorities report a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases in Wuhan, tied to the Huanan Market.
• January 2020: The virus is sequenced as SARS-CoV-2; the WHO declares a global health emergency.
• 2020: The BND launches Project Saaremaa to probe the virus’s origins.
• March 2021: A WHO mission to Wuhan downplays the lab-leak theory but faces transparency critiques.
• March 2025: German media unveil the BND report, citing an 80% to 95% lab-origin probability.

This timeline underscores how the origin question has evolved from scientific uncertainty to a geopolitical flashpoint.

Myths vs. facts: what science knows about Covid-19’s roots

The coronavirus’s origins have spawned numerous theories, some grounded, others speculative. The BND’s disclosure clarifies key points while exposing persistent gaps. Here are some myths and facts:

• Was the virus a bioweapon? No evidence supports this; the BND points to an accident, not intent.
• Is animal transmission the only answer? The lack of a clear intermediate host undermines this idea.
• Are Level 4 labs foolproof? Safety breaches, as flagged in Wuhan, prove accidents can happen.

The scientific community remains split, but the German findings underscore the need for more open, rigorous investigation.

Global fallout: how the German leak reshapes the narrative

The BND’s revelation in 2025 could shift global perspectives on the pandemic. Nations hit hard by Covid-19 may push for a robust international probe, demanding unfettered access to Wuhan’s records. The WHO, which called for further studies after its constrained 2021 mission, might gain momentum to lead a multilateral effort.

In the U.S., where the CIA deemed the lab-leak theory plausible with “low confidence” in 2024, the news could heighten tensions with China. Beijing, insisting that politicization hampers scientific cooperation, faces growing skepticism due to its refusal to release full data from Wuhan.

Public buzz: reactions flood social media

The German report’s release sparked a firestorm online. On X, users expressed outrage and vindication, with many noting that early lab-leak advocates were once branded conspiracy theorists. “We knew something was off in Wuhan from the start,” one post read, echoing widespread distrust. Others questioned Germany’s delay in sharing the findings.

The spotlight also returned to Shi Zhengli, the Wuhan Institute’s lead virologist, dubbed the “Bat Woman” for her coronavirus research. Though she has denied any leak in sparse interviews, the BND’s claims are likely to intensify scrutiny on her work and the institute’s practices.